Could the once united Trump family be fading in this election?

In late afternoon sunshine, Eric Trump shook his fist and led chants of “Fight! Fight! Fight!” The second son of Donald Trump told a fervent crowd: “They tried to smear us, they tried to bankrupt us, they came after us, they impeached him twice … then, guys, they tried to kill him.”

A who’s who of the Maga movement had gathered for a Trump campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, less than three months after the Republican presidential nominee survived an assassination attempt there. Trump was joined on stage by running mate JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk. But if he was looking for moral support from his family, he would have to settle for Eric. His other children – and his wife – were notably absent.

The no-shows at Trump’s recent marquee event were indicative of a divided family keeping a lower profile than in past election cycles. When he took the political establishment by storm in 2016, the Trump family business was part of his brand. This time, at campaign stops where he gives disjointed and demagogic speeches, he cuts a more isolated figure.

Trump’s elder daughter, Ivanka, is sitting the election out while his younger daughter, Tiffany, is pregnant. His youngest son, Barron, 18, has begun his freshman year of college at New York University. Eric, executive vice-president of the Trump Organization, makes occasional appearances on the campaign trail alongside his wife, Lara, who is now co-chair of the Republican National Committee.

“I get to go to bed every single night and wake up every single morning listening about voter integrity,” Eric, 40, joked in Butler, with Lara at his side. “It’s really great. I’m really, really excited for November 6 when Lara can turn over in the morning and not talk about voter integrity.”

Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, 46, has been less prominent on the campaign trail than in previous election cycles. But appearances can be deceptive. Off stage, Don Jr is more influential than ever as a political operative. He has built a loyal following in the Maga universe via his Triggered podcast on Rumble and gained powerful allies such as Charlie Kirk, founder and president of Turning Point USA.

It was Don Jr who advocated for his close friend Vance, a relatively inexperienced senator from Ohio, to become Trump’s vice-presidential nominee. There is speculation in Washington that the pair struck a deal that, should Vance make his own White House bid, he will name Don Jr as his running mate. Vance has previously said: “With the exception of his dad, I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone who has a stronger natural connection to our base.”

Some suspect that Don Jr would be the power behind the throne of a second Trump administration. Speaking on the sidelines of July’s Republican national convention in Milwaukee, he said he wants “veto power” over hiring decisions in a presidential transition. “I don’t want to pick a single person for a position of power; all I want to do is block the guys that would be a disaster,” Don Jr said during an Axios House event. “I want to block the liars, I want to block the guys that are pretending they’re with you.”

Joe Walsh, a former Republican congressman and Tea party activist turned Trump critic, said: “What I’ve heard is that Junior is hugely active behind the scenes and hugely influential behind the scenes and that, if Trump is to win, Junior’s going to be basically the power broker. He’s going to be the big player in the administration.”

Eric Trump and Lara Trump attend a rally for Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 5 October. Photograph: Carlos Barría/Reuters

The ascendency of Don Jr and Eric coincides with the declining influence of Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner, both of whom worked in the Trump White House. This is seen as evidence that, having conquered the Republican party, populist extremism has prevailed in Trump’s own family.

Walsh, part of a group known as Republicans for Harris campaigning for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, added: “Different family members are the faces this time around and who are they? They’re the more Maga. Junior is clearly Maga. Lara Trump is a Maga idiot and her husband Eric is the same way.

“Jared Kushner and Ivanka were never that way. They’re more polite, kind of high society folks so they were never really meshed with the whole Maga thing. It parallels with who would work for Trump in the second administration. It would all be much more Maga crazies.”

Despite his New York upbringing, Don Jr has styled himself as an outdoorsman who hunts and fishes and connects with middle America. He has also spent a decade honing a brash political persona, delivering fiery speeches, tweeting conspiracy theories and goading liberal critics – “owning the libs” – in ways that meet the moment for his father.

Joshua Kendall, author of First Dads: Parenting and Politics from George Washington to Barack Obama, agrees. He said: “Trump has gotten much more authoritarian so Don Jr is a much better fit for this go around than in 2016, when Trump was still every once in a while trying to make a nod that would be presidential.

“Now he really doesn’t care and that fits very well with Don Jr’s personality which is he’s a real firebrand and, just like his father, he enjoys getting down and dirty with stump speeches and saying harsh things.”

Children have long been crucial players in presidential campaigns; Jimmy Carter’s worked tirelessly to boost him in the New Hampshire primary election in 1976. As the oldest major party nominee in history, Trump, 78, has turned to his grandchildren to soften his image.

Kai Trump, the 17-year-old daughter of Don Jr and his ex-wife Vanessa, told delegates at the Republican convention: “The media makes my grandpa seem like a different person. But I know him for who he is. He is very caring and loving. He truly wants the best for this country. And he will fight every single day to make America great again.”

Yet although Trump’s wife, Melania, also attended the convention, she broke custom by not delivering a speech. The former first lady has maintained a low profile except to promote her own memoir, in which she expressed support for abortion rights – potentially giving her husband a political headache.

It is a stark contrast with past elections, where spouses such as Laura Bush and Michelle Obama have been critical allies, and with Harris’s husband, Doug Emhoff, who is unfailingly loyal and hugely active on the campaign trail.

Kendall added: “Melania is doing as little as necessary. In that book she came out as pro-abortion so she can’t be counted on to go all Maga. The appeal of Don Jr and Eric is that Trump can count on them. They’re the two family members that are most connected to him and most willing to do his dirty work.

“Melania has also drawn a line in the sand. She wouldn’t speak at the convention, which these days is not common and isn’t going out on the stump. Compare how much Emhoff is doing to how little she is doing.”

Some commentators believe that there is another, pragmatic reason for Trump’s wife and daughter to hang back this time. Rick Wilson, a co-founder of the Lincoln Project, a pro-democracy and anti-Trump group, wrote on X: “You know Trump is losing because Jared, Ivanka, and Melania are nowhere to be seen. If he was really ahead, they’d be all over the Campaign like jackals on a two day old gazelle corpse.”