Europe’s far right will look at Austria and say: this is how we do it | Cas Mudde and Gabriela Greilinger

While Europe may be “sleepwalking into a far-right trap”, Austria is consciously walking straight into it. After all, polls had predicted the most recent electoral success of the Austrian Freedom party (FPÖ) for almost two years. While the far-right party’s leader, Herbert Kickl, heralded its victory as the beginning of “a new era”, it is better understood as a seemingly unavoidable progression. If anything, the country’s recent election results confirmed a broader pattern of far-right normalisation in Europe in general and in Austria in particular.

Although 29% was indeed its best result ever in a nationwide election, the FPÖ has consistently achieved results in the double digits since 1990, has been included in the national government multiple times, and currently governs in several states with the conservative Austrian People’s party (ÖVP). After the most recent state election in Vorarlberg, the ÖVP is about to form its fourth regional coalition with the FPÖ there. As such, Austria is a perfect example of the dangerous shortsightedness of normalising far-right parties – a process led in the 21st century by, above all, conservative parties.

It started as a way to strengthen its own power, but the ÖVP’s embrace of the FPÖ and the latter’s repeated inclusion in national government helped make far-right policy positions mainstream, which in turn made the far right more acceptable to the general public – perhaps ultimately helping it win September’s elections. Because if the mainstream already parrots the far right, then why not just vote for the “real thing” instead? People prefer the original over the copy, as the far-right French politician Jean-Marie Le Pen once said, and as research confirms.

The ÖVP will now probably become the junior party in a coalition with a dominant FPÖ. As is the case following recent elections in several other European countries, such as Italy and the Netherlands, the far right is now the largest contingent in the rightwing block. Given that many conservative parties have by now worked alongside far-right parties at a national or local level, suddenly questioning their competence and abilities rings hollow and hypocritical, and not just to the far right.

Unsurprisingly, the ÖVP’s normalisation of the far right – linked to its own radicalisation on certain issues, such as Islam and immigration – has created expectations among its own voters. Today, a substantial share of ÖVP supporters consider the FPÖ to be a better coalition partner than any mainstream party. In a recent poll from before the election, almost half (48%) of ÖVP voters said the party should govern with the “Kickl FPÖ”, while just over a third (34%) of ÖVP voters preferred to govern with the “Babler SPÖ”, meaning the leader of the Social Democrats, Andreas Babler, and his party.

Although the ÖVP was the only mainstream party that had not categorically ruled out governing with the FPÖ before the election, it did declare its leader, Kickl, persona non grata. While the ÖVP leader, Karl Nehammer, still holds on to this odd separation – as though Kickl is somehow exceptional – he is already at odds with almost half of his voters. Moreover, Kickl was the minister for the interior in the previous ÖVP-FPÖ government.

Incidentally, during that government, cut short by the infamous Ibiza scandal, the ÖVP chose to ignore the FPÖ’s behaviour: as interior minister, Kickl ordered a police raid of Austria’s own domestic intelligence agency, a move was later declared illegal and disproportionate, as the underlying reasons for the search proved to be unfounded. Moreover, the ÖVP had also undermined itself in office, as the conviction of the former chancellor Sebastian Kurz for making false statements to a parliamentary inquiry into alleged corruption demonstrated. This suggests that close collaboration with the far right normalises not only its policy stances but also its behaviour. Given that the ÖVP did little to stop the FPÖ when it was the senior party in the coalition, what can we expect of it as the junior partner?

Importantly, Austria is not the only country in western Europe demonstrating this dangerous pattern of far-right normalisation. In both Italy and Sweden, for instance, a far-right party has become the most popular within the rightwing block. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders was normalised to prop up a rightwing coalition led by the conservative People’s party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). When Wilders’ Freedom party (PVV) unexpectedly won the election, VVD members forced their party leader, Dilan Yeşilgöz, to enter a PVV-dominated coalition, albeit without Wilders as prime minister. A similar process will likely follow in Austria – and it won’t stop there.

• Cas Mudde is the Stanley Wade Shelton UGAF professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia, and author of The Far Right Today. Gabriela Greilinger is a PhD student at the University of Georgia