Fears of False Start for Fed Leave Emerging Markets in Limbo

(Bloomberg) -- Price action in some of the world’s most risk-sensitive assets is signaling concern that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lowering interest rates may have been premature — or unsustainable.

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Since the Fed kicked off its long-anticipated loosening cycle on Sept. 18 with a cut of 50 basis points, double the median forecast, emerging-market assets have traded as if borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy will remain high. That’s left developing world assets in limbo and headed for another span of underperformance.

In little over a month, the Fed rate cut has been eclipsed by fresh risks that are keeping global investors shy on the asset class, overshadowing the gains that Fed easing cycles might usually be expected to bring. While the threats have taken different forms — higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, greater volatility in currency options — the underlying themes have been just two: the potential return of Donald Trump as US president and China’s inadequate stimulus measures.

That means that once again, traders in emerging markets are positioning defensively for an inflationary US economy and a deflationary Chinese one.

“We remain in a world with two potentially existential threats to EM – China weakness and Trump,” said Paul McNamara, investment director at Gam UK Ltd. in London. “A strong US economy without inflation is good for EM, but persistent inflation will not only postpone further cuts, but weigh on all risk assets into the medium term.”

Though there was an initial boost to emerging markets from the Fed move, it was first interrupted by strong US data that revived fears of resurgent inflation, and later comments by presidential candidate Trump that exacerbated them. The Republican nominee has put tariffs and protectionism at the center of his agenda. If implemented, that’s likely to raise consumer prices in the US and undermine demand for exports from the developing world, according to many economists.

“We’re just weeks away from a US election that might lead to a Trump economic assault on the biggest EM out there, China,” said Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at FIM Partners. “It’s close to a coin flip as to who wins the US election, and equally makes it hard to choose a local markets trade to like.”