Markets and the Middle East: How investors are weathering geopolitics

By Dhara Ranasinghe and Alun John

LONDON (Reuters) - Conflict in the Middle East is escalating once more, but the mood music across financial markets remains upbeat for now due to shifts in oil production and as global interest rate cuts eclipse geopolitics.

Israel, still battling Hamas in Gaza, bombed Beirut on Thursday as it continued its conflict with Lebanese group Hezbollah days after being attacked by Iran.

Yet MSCI's world stock index is just 1% off last week's record highs and oil prices, which rose around 5% in the 24 hours after Iran's missile attack on Israel, have steadied around a far from threatening $75 dollars a barrel.

Certainly, a bigger escalation that disrupts supplies of oil from the Middle East and shakes the global economy would invoke a bigger reaction, and the fact that stock markets are near record highs could make them vulnerable to sharp falls.

But for now markets are cushioned by the prospect of more monetary easing and by the United States' expanded role in oil production, which has offset the Middle East's dominance.

Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, the VIX volatility index, is at a moderate level around 20 - well below a post-pandemic peak above 60 hit during market turmoil in early August linked to an unwind in global carry trades.

"When we think about geopolitical risk and its transmission into asset prices, what will obviously have a bigger impact is if we see outcomes that materially impact growth or inflation," said Mark Dowding, BlueBay Asset Management's chief investment officer.

"The main concern really has been through a transmission impact on oil prices. But even here, we've been in a situation where, if anything that the oil price had been sliding."

The United States becoming a big oil producer - the world's biggest for the past six years - has reduced global sensitivity to Middle East supply disruptions, analysts say.

And European energy markets have reorganised themselves since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was a dramatic example of how an energy price surge can roil global markets and economies.

"The growing importance of the U.S. would suggest that risks to energy supply from rising tensions in the Middle East are somewhat mitigated," said Katharine Neiss, chief European economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

DIFFERENT TIMES

In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, oil prices surged above $100 and gas prices soared, unleashing a fresh wave of inflation that piled pressure on central banks to hike interest rates, driving bond yields higher, especially in the U.S. and, in turn, boosting the dollar.