MLS power rankings: Cincinnati on the slide as a new contender emerges

Welcome back to the Guardian’s MLS Power Rankings, where I have a beef with your specific team and your specific team alone. Unless you’re the last-place San Jose Earthquakes, in which case you have enough to worry about without me getting all up in your face.

Now, as a reminder, these aren’t your standard, run-of-the-mill power rankings. We’re still ranking teams from worst to first. But along with the rankings, we’re diving deep into a handful of teams from around the league who are doing particularly interesting things.

“Complete rebuild”

29. San Jose Earthquakes

28. Chicago Fire

27. Sporting Kansas City

26. New England Revolution

25. Nashville SC

24. Toronto FC

“TFC is a complete rebuild … Everything is on the table,” Keith Pelley told the Canadian Press.

Pelley is the president and CEO of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, the company that owns Toronto FC. Only in the job since April, it hasn’t taken long for Pelley to recognize a big ol’ rebuild has to be on the cards for Toronto. TFC missed the playoffs this year and don’t have a game on Decision Day, either, so their year is over. That means they have the freedom to start tearing things down.

Really, that process has already begun. Pelley and general manager Jason Hernandez have been working with Marco Neppe, a former Bayern Munich technical director, for the last couple of months as they put together a “full organizational review”.

Pinpointing problems in Toronto isn’t hard. There’s the stalled academy pipeline that has seen them fail to develop a top Canadian talent, despite operating in a populous, talent-rich area. Then there’s the problem of the overpaid, underperforming Italians. Federico Bernardeschi, who has the sixth-highest salary in MLS, put together a fine season with eight goals and six assists, while Lorenzo Insigne, who makes more than anybody but Messi, notched just nine goal contributions and played only 1,352 minutes.

Really, though, the biggest problem is the one that Pelley is trying to address: Toronto FC don’t know how they want to go about winning soccer games. Is their on-field direction going to be fully set by manager John Herdman? Is his tactical approach informing the kinds of players they want to sign in the transfer market? For Toronto, there’s been precious little continuity in their signings outside of signing a load of players to bad contracts.

In the wake of TFC president Bill Manning’s overdue firing in July, Toronto’s internal assessment and rebuild can’t move along fast enough.

Toronto FC’s Lorenzo Insigne notched just nine goal contributions and played only 1,352 minutes. Photograph: SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

Time for the star to step up

23. Austin FC

22. FC Dallas

21. St. Louis City

20. Atlanta United

19. CF Montreal

18. Philadelphia Union

For four teams in the Eastern Conference, this Saturday – the last matchday of the regular season – is all about one thing: making the playoffs.

DC United, CF Montreal, the Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United are all vying for the last two postseason spots out East. All 16 other playoff berths have been decided. The East’s wildcard slots are the only two that remain. The various playoff clinching scenarios can get a little complex, so I’ll send you right over here for the full details. For Atlanta, though, the top-line requirements are clear: they need a win at Orlando City and for their fellow playoff hopefuls to trip up.

To take care of their part of the bargain against Orlando, the Five Stripes would really benefit from a standout performance from Designated Player Alexey Miranchuk. Miranchuk, a No 10 who signed in the summer from Serie A’s Atalanta, has been mostly cold since he dropped one “a” from his team name.

Signed to replace Thiago Almada, Miranchuk has been an inconsistent playmaker, at best, in his eight appearances. According to FBref, he’s in just the 30th percentile for non-penalty expected goals plus expected assisted goals per 90 minutes among MLS attacking midfielders and wingers. The 28-year-old’s tools are obvious: he finds space off the ball, has a lovely first touch, and a skillful left foot. There’s been far too much sloppiness on his final action in Atlanta, though.

Without a permanent manager and with his only support from a roster in transition, it’s not a huge shock that Miranchuk has struggled. Still, if there was ever a time to clean things up, it’s Decision Day.

The rise of the low-profile striker

17. DC United

16. New York Red Bulls

15. Portland Timbers

14. Colorado Rapids

13. Charlotte FC

12. Houston Dynamo

2024 has been the year of strikers playing well above their pay grade in MLS.

New York City FC’s Alonso Martinez went from barely-used winger to elite striker earlier this year – he now sits first in non-penalty goals per 90 minutes and fourth among strikers in non-penalty goals, according to FBref. Brian White, who played college soccer and was acquired by the Vancouver Whitecaps for allocation money, has 15 non-penalty goals, and continues to be one of the best non-DPs in the league. Duncan McGuire, in his second season out of Creighton, has 10 non-penalty goals. Tani Oluwaseyi, who spent last year on loan in USL, has eight non-penalty goals and a handful of Canada caps to his name now.

And then there’s Charlotte FC’s Patrick Agyemang, who’s enjoying a breakout season during his second year post-college. The 23-year-old has battled through injury and multiple DP strikers to make his mark for Dean Smith’s team.

With nine non-penalty goals and three assists in 1,756 minutes, Agyemang has shown flashes in front of goal. He’s not just a scorer, though. He’s also a nightmare for opposing center backs on the dribble. According to American Soccer Analysis’ goals added metric, which measures the value of every on-ball action, the Connecticut native is seventh among regular starting strikers in dribbling value on a per-96 minute basis.

Agyemang’s long stride, strength, and rapidly improving composure make him a fascinating (and productive) No 9:

If Charlotte opt to put a DP on the field over Agyemang in 2025, they shouldn’t be surprised if phone calls for the late-bloomer start pouring in from other teams around the league. More MLS clubs are starting to realize that, with the right structure around the striker, they don’t have to go out and splash a ton of cash on a forward from abroad. There’s value to be found at home.

Charlotte FC’s Patrick Agyemang, center, has notched nine non-penalty goals and three assists in 1,756 minutes. Photograph: Jared C Tilton/Getty Images

A mess in Cincy

11. Vancouver Whitecaps

10. Minnesota United

9. New York City FC

8. Real Salt Lake

7. FC Cincinnati

6. Orlando City

Don’t look now, but things have gotten real bad for FC Cincinnati.

They’ve had two different four-game winless streaks in their last 11 games and have the fourth-fewest points per game in the entire league in that stretch. The only teams below them? San Jose, Nashville, and New England. Gulp.

Where has it gone wrong for a Cincy team that looked capable of following up their Supporters’ Shield win last year with another trophy this year? Well, they have a talent issue. Sporting director Chris Albright didn’t build a bad roster, but between brutal injury luck and transfer flops, 2024 has turned into a mess.

Thanks to season-ending injuries to Matt Miazga and Nick Hagglund, it’s been an all-hands-on-deck situation at center back. By my count, 10 different players have played at least 100 minutes for Cincy in the middle of the backline this year. 10! Moving upfield, Aaron Boupendza was supposed to fill the hole up top after the departures of Brenner and Brandon Vazquez. Instead, Boupendza’s contract was terminated in August by MLS after a mess of off-field incidents.

Knowing they were in sore need of a lift in the summer transfer window, FC Cincinnati attempted some big swings in the attack. They ended up whiffing on both Josh Sargent and German Berterame, leading them to bring former St Louis City striker Niko Gioacchini back to MLS on a short-term loan.

As bad as things have been, playoff success isn’t entirely out of reach. Lucho Acosta, Luca Orellano, and a handful of strong players in the spine have kept Cincy’s ceiling quite high. Still, they need to discover a new on-field revenue stream – and fast – with the playoffs just around the corner.

A new contender emerges

5. Seattle Sounders

4. LAFC

3. LA Galaxy

2. Columbus Crew

1. Inter Miami

Until a few months ago, there were six teams that looked like legitimate trophy contenders: Inter Miami, the Columbus Crew, FC Cincinnati, the LA Galaxy, LAFC, and Real Salt Lake. Eventually, Real Salt Lake’s summer transfer window derailed their season and took them off that list. FC Cincinnati dropped, too, for reasons listed above.

Though they don’t have the superstars possessed by the four teams above them in these rankings, the Seattle Sounders have the best argument to join them in the top-tier.

Brian Schmetzer’s team has gone a staggering 12W-2D-2L in their last 16 regular season games. In that stretch, only Supporters’ Shield winners and potential MLS single-season points record holders Inter Miami have bested them on points per game. In that same stretch, Seattle also have the third-best expected goal differential per game in MLS, according to American Soccer Analysis. Their +0.47 xGD per game puts them above every team not named the Portland Timbers or the Columbus Crew.

Anchored by the best defense in MLS, the Sounders’ commitment to disciplined, compact defending – and the execution from brilliant individual defenders within their 4-4-2 structure – sets them apart from every other contender.

Watch out MLS: the Seattle Sounders have hit their stride at just the right time.