Scandal-hit Bob Menendez the focus as New Jersey holds primaries

Five states and Washington DC will hold primary contests on Tuesday, and much attention will be paid to New Jersey, where the indictment of Senator Bob Menendez has upended more than one race.

Menendez, who has denied allegations that he accepted bribes to promote the interests of the Egyptian government, has chosen not to seek the Democratic Senate nomination. Congressman Andy Kim is expected to easily win the Democratic Senate primary after New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy withdrew from the race in March.

But Menendez has not opted out of the Senate race entirely, as he officially filed for re-election as an independent candidate on Monday, allowing him to continue raising money, which can be used to help cover his hefty legal bills. According to a poll conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University last month, Menendez is only attracting 6% or 7% of the vote in hypothetical general election match-ups.

Meanwhile, four New Jersey Republicans will seek their party’s Senate nomination, with hotelier Curtis Bashaw and Mendham borough mayor Christine Serrano Glassner widely viewed as the frontrunners. Even with Menendez on the ballot, the eventual Republican nominee is unlikely to win a general election in the reliably Democratic state of New Jersey. The state has not elected a Republican senator since 1972, and Joe Biden won New Jersey by 16 points in 2020.

Menendez’s legal troubles have also jeopardized the political future of his son, freshman congressman Rob Menendez. Hoboken mayor Ravi Bhalla has launched a primary challenge against Rob Menendez in New Jersey’s eighth congressional district, and the two candidates have nearly matched each other in fundraising hauls. Though Menendez has not been implicated in his father’s alleged crimes, Bhalla has focused his campaign messaging on the need to crack down on corruption and “return power to the people”. The winner of the primary is overwhelmingly favored to win the general election in November, as the Cook Political Report rates the district as solid Democrat.

In New Jersey’s third congressional district, Kim’s Senate campaign has left a House seat vacant and created an opportunity for up-and-coming Democrats. Five Democrats will compete for their party’s nomination, while four Republicans have launched primary campaigns as well. Although Kim won his first congressional race in 2018 by just one point, redistricting following the 2020 census has made the district more favored toward Democrats. The Cook Political Report rates the district as solid Democrat in the general election.

Beyond New Jersey, four other states – Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota – and Washington DC will hold primary elections on Tuesday. In Iowa, two House Republicans – Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the first district and Randy Feenstra in the fourth district – have drawn primary challenges. Feenstra’s district is viewed as safely Republican in the general election, but the Cook Political Report rates Miller-Meeks’ seat as likely Republican, creating a potential opportunity for Democrats in November.

In Montana, Republican governor Greg Gianforte faces a primary challenger, and the winner of that race will likely compete against first-time Democratic candidate Ryan Busse, a former firearms executive turned gun industry critic, in November. But Busse will face an uphill battle in the gubernatorial race, as Donald Trump won Montana by 16 points in 2020.

Despite Montana’s Republican leanings, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is keeping the Senate race close as he seeks a fourth term. In the general election, Tester will likely compete against Republican Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy Seal who is widely expected to win his party’s Senate nomination on Tuesday.

New Mexico’s incumbent Democratic senator, Martin Heinrich, is running unopposed in his primary, and he will go on to face off against Republican Nella Domenici, former chief financial officer of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates. The Cook Political Report rates New Mexico’s Senate race as solid Democrat, but one of the state’s House races is viewed as among the most competitive in the nation. Freshman Democratic congressman Gabe Vazquez will have a rematch against former Republican congresswoman Yvette Herrell in New Mexico’s second congressional district, after he defeated the then incumbent by less than one point in 2022. Both Vazquez and Herrell are running unopposed in their primaries, so they are already gearing up for the general election.

While much attention will be paid to congressional primaries on Tuesday, all five voting states and Washington DC will simultaneously hold their presidential primaries as well. Biden and Trump have already secured enough delegates to lock up their parties’ nominations, but the results on Tuesday will offer some of the first insight into Republican primary voters’ views following the former president’s felony conviction in New York last week.

Although former UN ambassador Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican presidential primary in March, she has continued to win support in recent contests. In Maryland’s Republican presidential primary last month, Haley won nearly 23% of the vote. Leaders of both parties will be watching closely to see how Haley’s vote share might rise – or fall – after Trump’s conviction, and her performance could offer significant clues about the electorate heading into the general election.